Base Tension Scale
Our tension scale is inspired by historical conflict analysis and geopolitical risk assessment methodologies. Each event is assigned a base tension value based on its severity and potential impact on global stability:
0.01-0.05
Minor diplomatic incidents (e.g., diplomatic protests, minor trade disputes)
0.05-0.1
Notable diplomatic disputes (e.g., ambassador recalls, economic sanctions threats)
0.1-0.25
Significant regional incidents (e.g., border tensions, military exercises)
0.25-1.0
Major regional crises (e.g., severe diplomatic breakdowns, military mobilizations)
1.0-3.0
Severe international incidents (e.g., limited military engagements, major cyber attacks)
3.0-7.0
Large-scale armed conflicts (e.g., regional wars, major terrorist attacks)
7.0-12.0
Wars involving major powers (e.g., direct conflicts between global powers)
12.0-20.0
Major global conflicts (e.g., world wars, nuclear confrontations)
Variable Half-Life Decay System
To reflect the natural de-escalation of tensions over time, we implement a half-life based decay system that varies depending on the event type and tension level:
Diplomatic Events
High Tension (>5):10 years half-life
Medium Tension (>2):4 years half-life
Low Tension (<2):2 years half-life
Economic Events
High Tension (>5):5 years half-life
Medium Tension (>2):2 years half-life
Low Tension (<2):1 years half-life
Military Events
High Tension (>5):25 years half-life
Medium Tension (>2):10 years half-life
Low Tension (<2):5 years half-life
Political Events
High Tension (>5):50 years half-life
Medium Tension (>2):20 years half-life
Low Tension (<2):10 years half-life
Half-Life Decay Explanation
The half-life system means that each event's tension value will reduce by 50% over the specified time period. For example, a diplomatic event with a tension of 6 has a half-life of 10 years, meaning it would take 10 years for its contribution to world tension to fall to 3, and another 10 years to fall to 1.5, and so on.
Negative tension values (which represent tension-reducing events) do not decay over time.
For backward compatibility, a legacy constant decay rate of 0.065 tension points per day may still be used in some contexts, but the system now primarily uses the variable half-life system.
Assessment Factors
Each event's tension value is calculated by considering multiple factors:
Military Dimension
Scale of forces involved, casualties, type of weapons deployed
Geopolitical Impact
Number of nations affected, strategic importance of the region
Economic Consequences
Impact on global markets, trade disruptions, sanctions
Humanitarian Impact
Civilian casualties, displacement, humanitarian crises
Escalation Potential
Risk of conflict spreading, involvement of additional actors
Historical Benchmarks
To provide context, here are some historical events and their peak tension values:
Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)~10.0
October 7 Hamas-Israel attack (2023)~2.5
US-China trade war (2018-2019)~1.0
Brexit finalization (2020)~0.5
Standard diplomatic disputes~0.02-0.05
Data Sources & Updates
Our tension values are derived from multiple reliable sources:
International news agencies and reputable media outlets Government and diplomatic communications Military and defense analysis reports Economic and market impact assessments Humanitarian organization reports Academic and think tank analysis 